The nationwide election held on Sunday delivered a significant blow to Thailand’s military-backed establishment as opposition parties emerged victorious. This outcome reflects the mounting frustration among voters over the governance of conservative cliques in the country, which had been in power since the 2014 coup.
The election witnessed an unprecedented surge in voter turnout, with citizens responding to the call for change. This sets the stage for a potentially dramatic political landscape as parties now vie for coalition support to form a government under the influence of the junta-era constitution, which still grants the military significant power.
With over 99% of votes counted, the progressive Move Forward party is projected to lead with 151 seats, followed by the populist Pheu Thai party with 141 seats.
This substantial lead places the opposition well ahead of incumbent Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, who led the 2014 coup.
Pita Limjaroenrat, the leader of the Move Forward party, expressed his preparedness to assume leadership and addressed the nation’s aspirations for a better Thailand during a news conference held on Monday. He extended an invitation to Pheu Thai and other opposition parties, urging them to form an alliance against Prayut. Pita revealed that four additional opposition parties have already agreed to collaborate in forming a government, emphasizing the importance of respecting the election’s outcome.
Pita, a 42-year-old Harvard graduate with a business background, reiterated his party’s commitment to amending Thailand’s strict lese majeste laws, despite the sensitivity surrounding discussions about the royal family. He highlighted the need to support individuals facing imprisonment due to lese majeste charges, especially in light of the youth-led protests in 2020 that boldly called for royal reform, breaching long-standing taboos. Pita warned that maintaining the status quo would only strain the relationship between the Thai people and the monarchy.
The election’s unofficial results deliver a powerful verdict against Thailand’s military-backed establishment and traditionalist forces, signaling a significant defeat in the popular vote.
Susannah Patton, director of the Southeast Asia Program at the Lowy Institute, characterized the outcome as remarkable and introducing a new level of unpredictability, particularly considering the progress made in reform discussions surrounding lese majeste laws in the country compared to a few years ago.
Military’s Advantage Persists as Uncertainty Lingers in Thai Election Outcome
Despite the overwhelming rejection of military-backed parties by voters, the question of who will come to power remains uncertain. The military establishment maintains significant influence in the selection process, even in the face of public opposition.
To form a government and elect the next prime minister, a party or coalition must secure a majority in the combined 750-seat lower and upper houses of parliament. However, Thailand’s junta-era constitution dictates that the military appoint the entire 250-seat senate, indicating a likely preference for a pro-military candidate.
In the 2019 election, Prayut’s military-backed coalition secured enough seats to make him prime minister and form a government, despite Pheu Thai being the largest party.
During a press conference on Monday, the Election Commission of Thailand (ECT) announced that voter turnout reached a historic high of 75.2%. ECT Chairman Ittiporn Boonpracong expressed delight at this figure, emphasizing the determination of people to participate in the election.
Ittiporn explained that the vote count was temporarily delayed to ensure accuracy, and one polling station had to suspend voting due to heavy rainfall.
Official results are expected within five days, with a 60-day period for the winners to receive an endorsement, as outlined by Ittiporn.
Unofficial results, as of 4 a.m. local time, suggested that the Bhumjai Thai party was projected to secure third position with 71 seats, while Prayut’s United Thai Nation party was on track to win 35 seats.
Progressive Party Delivers Devastating Blow in Thai Election
In a landmark Sunday election, the renowned Pheu Thai party, which has held the mantle of Thai populism for two decades and enjoyed favorable poll ratings leading up to the ballot, squared off against parties backed by the influential conservative establishment. Throughout history, this establishment has lent support to candidates linked to the military, monarchy, and ruling elites.
Pheu Thai, associated with the affluent Shinawatra family, renowned as a political dynasty led by former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, presented one of its prime ministerial candidates as Thaksin’s daughter, the 36-year-old Paetongtarn.
During a press conference on Sunday, Paetongtarn addressed reporters, stating, “We must honor the voice of the people. The victorious party in the election should rightfully have the initial opportunity to form a government.”
However, this year witnessed the emergence of the Move Forward party as a dynamic and transformative political force. Its campaign focused on an ambitious agenda for national reform, advocating structural changes to the military, economy, decentralization of power, and even previously unassailable reforms concerning the monarchy.
The party garnered immense popularity among Thailand’s youth, including over three million first-time voters, who felt neglected during nearly a decade of military-led or supported governance.
This election marked the first since 2020’s youth-led mass pro-democracy protests, which demanded reforms to democracy, the military, constitutional amendments, and, strikingly for Thailand, limitations on the monarchy’s powers.
Moreover, it was only the second election since the 2014 military coup, which overthrew a democratically elected government led by Yingluck Shinawatra, paving the way for Prayut to install himself as prime minister.
